‘Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK’

While JP Morgan, and Stephanie Flanders, their Chief Market Strategist, will not take a stand either way on the EU Referendum, the prospect of Brexit is clearly causing some concern in the financial services industry. Stephanie was speaking at Guiding Lights, Jersey Finance’s Private Client Conference which took place in London last week and outlined the different approaches to European trade in a post-Brexit world.

Looking at parallel examples, it was clear that trade with EU countries depends on a sliding scale, with market share an integration juxtaposed against the sharing of sovereignty. The more countries are prepared to share their sovereignty, the more access to the EU they will be granted.

If the UK were to pull out of the EU, it would have to renegotiate that relationship, reviewing where it stands and what it will give up in order to trade with the Eurozone, in other words, a very similar situation to the current one.

In other respects, the data suggests that the UK has been doing very well out its membership of the EU, with growth performance measured against the core Eurozone countries having improved since the UK joined the union.

As Geoff Cook pointed out, if the UK wanted some advice on what is required in terms of equivalency in order to trade with the Eurozone, then Jersey is well placed to help in that regard.